Both former U.S. military commanders interviewed by Task & Purpose said the decision seemed counterintuitive to broader Western goals to limit Russian influence in the region. Retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, former Commander of the U.S. Army Europe said the decision reflects the lack of a clear policy in the Black Sea region.
“The decision to postpone exercises, that’s a policy statement, but it’s not connected to any well founded thought out strategy for the region,” he said.
Howard noted Georgia’s specific importance “as a cork in the bottle for the caucuses” to prevent the post-Soviet and eastern European nations from sliding towards Russia and away from the West.
“In other words, Georgia goes, the Russians cut off Azerbaijan, they cut off the Caspian, they cut off the ‘stans and they control the geopolitical destiny of the region and they control China,” Howard said. “The east, west, north, south transportation corridors go through Georgia. The geopolitical importance of Georgia is not lost here and we need to keep that in mind when we’re making our policy decisions.”
Hodges also said that such a politically driven decision could undermine U.S.-Georgia military cooperation going forward and give Russia more ammo to push anti-American narratives.
“It will reinforce the notion that some countries have that the U.S. is maybe not as reliable as we used to be,” he said. “When you cancel an exercise, because we’re unhappy with the Georgia Dream government, that misses the whole point of why we do the exercise. It’s kind of like cutting your nose off to spite your face.”
Howard said that pro-Russian factions in Georgia are likely applauding the decision. Those in the military who have trained with American troops and are pro-U.S., will not be engaged.
“Do you want to show these people at the end of the day you’re gonna be there to help them or are you going to roll up the flag and say, ‘We’re heading out guys. See you later,’” Howard said. “That’s how it may appear.”
